The global cruise industry is facing tremendous pressure to decarbonize, with renewable methanol emerging as a leading alternative fuel. This thesis assesses the availability of renewable methanol in terms of its production, transportation, and consumption, all of which are critical components for successful adoption. The thesis evaluated the cruise industry’s energy demand against the projected methanol supply up to 2050, while also considering the impact of different fuel mix scenarios and efficiency improvement measures, to achieve the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets from 2030 to 2050. Furthermore, a cost analysis comparing the usage of fossil-based marine fuel and renewable methanol was conducted, considering regulatory frameworks on carbon pricing and emission penalties.
By 2050, the total renewable methanol supply is projected to reach 385 Mt, comprising of 135 Mt biomethanol and 250 Mt of e-methanol. Using the estimated 3% share of the total renewable methanol for the cruise industry, the analysis shows that this amount will be insufficient to meet the projected fuel demand. The cruise sector must secure 10% of the global methanol supply as part of its decarbonization strategy. It must actively compete with other major sectors such as the chemical, plastics, and transportation industries for a larger allocation. Despite the higher upfront costs of renewable methanol, it can serve as a financial risk mitigation tool for the cruise industry. For instance, by 2040, e-methanol is expected to become cost-competitive, primarily due to improvements in plant operational efficiency and implementation of stringent carbon taxes and penalties.
Lastly, securing the supply is only the initial step. A holistic approach for a successful methanol adoption must also address logistics, storage, safe handling, and port bunkering operations, all of which require further advancement.